2013 round population projections

The 2013 round of projections featured a large number of variants including:

• Three variants of trend-based projection (Central, High, Low) that used different migration assumptions and which were used to inform the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) and Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP).

• A further trend-based projection that took the migration assumptions from the Central projection, but updated the fertility assumptions to be in line with assumptions taken from ONS’s 2012-based National Population Projections.

• Two variants of development-linked projections using development trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These variants make use of different methodologies to incorporate development data into the population projections.

Two Updates were released as part of the 2013 round. These detailed results and methodologies for the initial projection releases. The capped-household size model was released subsequently in response to demand from colleagues in some local authorities. An explanation of this and other methodologies is presented in the Technical Note.

For general use, the GLA advises the use of the SHLAA-based projection using the capped household size model. This gives rise to a broadly similar total population for London as the Central trend-based projection used in the SHMA/FALP, but with a geographical distribution of population growth that better reflects likely future development.

For the 2013 round, the decision was made to release the results of the ward-based projections by single year of age and gender, rather than in five-year age bands as in previous years. This change was to allow users to aggregate to the age bands of interest to them. It is important to note that the provision of these projections by single year of age and at unit level is to facilitate their subsequent use and is not an indication of their level of accuracy. Users should be aware that small area population estimates and projections are subject to high levels of uncertainty and potential inaccuracy.

The custom-age population tool is here.