2012 round population projections

The 2012 round of projections were the first to incorporate initial results from the 2011-Census. The projections adopted ONS’s subsequent 2011 mid-year estimate as the base population from which to project forward.

No migration data was available from the census to update the models so these used a mix of modified rates from the 2001 Census and rates taken from ONS’s 2010-based subnational projections.

No population back-series consistent with the 2011 mid-year estimate was available at the time the projections were being produced. A consistent back-series is crucial for the projection process as it is used to generate the rates and propensities governing fertility, mortality and migration used in the projections. The GLA produced its own back-series consistent with 2001 and 2011 mid-year estimates.

For this round, both trend-based and development-linked projections were produced. The development-linked projections made use of trajectories derived from the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. Household formation rates were based on those from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections.